AI-intensive companies surveyed in human and ethical terms for investment purposes.
Map AI technologies ethically so that investors can act in accord with their own values: AI Human Impact expands investor freedom.
Catalyze more and faster artificial intelligence innovation in three ways. First, AI Human Impact illuminates scenes of potential social rejection including unfair outcomes resulting from biased training data. More significantly, irresolvable dilemmas are delineated so that they can be capably navigated, such as the facial recognition trade-off between the right to privacy and the desire for personalized services. Finally, the strategy identifies engineering that expands human capabilities and potential instead of narcotizing users in dark patterns, and so orients AI development toward sustainable gains, and subsequent risk-adjusted returns.
AI Human Impact and Environmental Social Governance are both humanist investment strategies investigating nonfinancial criteria, but AIHI updates for, and focuses on data-driven enterprises.
Premise: ESG criteria are well suited to traditional companies in the industrial economy, but not AI-intensive companies in the digital economy: navigating the unprecedented economic powers, social effects, and ethical dilemmas rising along with AI requires novel categories for evaluation.
Environment
Environmental effects are the topline concern for ESG investors, but AI companies don’t typically produce toxic waste on an industrial scale, strip-mine the earth, or clear-cut forests. Environmental ratings connect only tenuously to facial recognition technology, to healthcare algorithms filtering electrocardiograms for abnormalities, to romance websites promising partners.
Privacy
Industrial organizations have little interest in consumers’ personally identifying information: Ford Motor Company initially promised customers they could have any color they wished, as long as it was black. Homogenization was the key to industrial economy success, and ethical dilemmas – along with ESG responses – followed in kind. Contrastingly, AI runs on personalization. Netflix does not aspire to produce generic movie recommendations for homogenized demographic groups, it aims specific possibilities toward individual viewers at targeted moments. The burgeoning field of dynamic insurance does not cover population segments over extended durations, it customizes for unique clients and intervenes at critical junctures. AI healthcare is less concerned with a patient's age group than with tiny and personal heartbeat abnormalities that escape human eyes but not machine learned analysis.
In the industrial, ESG economy, personally identifying and distinguishing information is ignored, even suppressed. In the AI economy it is obsessively gathered and leveraged. Because everything is about individuals and their unique data, the human impact of privacy decisions goes from being an afterthought to a primary concern.
AIHI applies only to companies functioning with AI at the core of their operation.
ESG applies broadly across the economy.
AIHI accounts for humanity in the digital world.
ESG accounts most effectively for humanity in the industrial world.
AIHI categories of evaluation derive from academic AI ethics.
ESG categories of evaluation derive from UN Sustainable Development Goals.
Short White Paper: Why Traditional ESG Does Not Work for AI
- Geneva Association for the Study of Insurance Economics, Switzerland
As promised by the Geneva Association, AI insurance will intervene to prevent risk in real time. This means a skier standing atop a double black diamond run may wrestle with her vitality and her fear as she decides whether to descend, and in the midst of the uncertainty receive a text message reporting that her health insurance premiums will rise if she goes for the thrill.
The promise of dynamic insurance is options customized for you, at any particular moment. One ethical knot for AI Human Impact concerns autonomy: On one hand, this AI-powered insurance increases self-determination by providing clients more control over their policies. On the other, the reason we have health insurance in the first place is so that we can take risks, like skiing the double black diamond run, and it's easier to do that when providers don’t know what policy holders are doing.
So, does dynamic AI insurance increase autonomy, or suffocate it? Answering questions like these is the labor of AI Human Impact.
- Chris Rudder, OKCupid Blog
In one of those experiments, users who the OkCupid algorithms determined to be incompatible were told the opposite. When they connected, their interaction was charted by the platform’s standard metrics: how many times did they message each other, with how many words, over how long a period, and so on. Then their relationship success was compared against pairs who were judged truly compatible. Presumably, the test measured the power of positive suggestion: Do incompatible users who are told they are compatible relate with the same success as true compatibles?
The answer is not as interesting as the users’ responses. One asked, “What if the manipulation is used for what you believe does good for the person?”
Human dignity is idea that individuals and their projects are valuable in themselves, and merely not as instruments or tools in the projects of others. Within AI Human Impact, the question dignity poses to OKCupid is: Are the romance-seekers being manipulated in experiments for their ultimate benefit because the learnings will result in a better platform and higher likelihood of romance? Or, is the manipulation about the platform’s owners and their marginally perverse curiosities?
The question’s answer is a step toward a dignity score for the company and, by extension, its parent: Match Group (Match, Tinder, Hinge …)
In AI medicine, because the biology of genders and races differ, there arises the risk that a diagnostic or treatment may function well for some groups while failing for others. As it happened, the machine centering our evaluation was trained on data which was limited geographically, and not always labeled in terms of gender or race. Because of the geography, it seemed possible that some races may have been over- or underrepresented in the training data.
A solidarity concern arises here. In ethics, solidarity is the social inclusiveness imperative that no one be left behind. Applied to the AI medical device, the solidarity question is: should patients from the overrepresented race(s) wait to use the technology until other races have been verified as fully included in the training data? A strict solidarity posture could respond affirmatively, while a flexible solidarity would allow use to begin so long as data gathering for underrepresented groups also initiated. Limited or absent solidarity would be indicated by neglect of potential users, possibly because a cost/benefit analysis returned a negative result, meaning some people get left behind because it is not worth the expense of training the machine for their narrow or outlying demographic segment.
In AI Human Impact, a positive solidarity score would be assigned to the company were it to move aggressively toward ensuring an inclusive training dataset.
Daniel Schreiber, the co-founder and CEO of the New York-based insurance startup Lemonade shares concerns that the increased use of machine-learning algorithms, if mishandled, could lead to “digital redlining,” as some consumer and privacy right advocates fear.
To ensure that an AI-led underwriting process is fair, Schreiber promotes the use of a "uniform loss ratio." If a company is engaging in fair underwriting practices, its loss ratio, or the amount it pays out in claims divided by the amount it collects in premiums, should be constant across race, gender, sexual orientation, religion and ethnicity.
What counts as fairness? According to the original Aristotelian dictate, it is treating equals equally, and unequals unequally.
The rule can be applied to individuals, and to groups. For individuals, fairness means clients who present unequal risk should receive unequal treatment: whether the product is car, home, or health insurance, the less likely a customer is to make a claim, the lower the premium that ought to be charged.
In Brooklyn New York, individual fairness starts with statistical reality: a condominium owner in a doorman building in the ritzy and well-policed Brooklyn Heights neighborhood (home to Matt Damon, Daniel Craig, Rachel Weisz…) is less likely to be robbed than a ground-floor apartment in the gritty Bedford-Stuyvesant neighborhood. That risk differential justifies charging the Brooklyn Heights owner less to insure more valuable possessions than the workingman out in Bed-Stuy.
What the startup insurance company Lemonade noticed – and they are not the only ones – is that premium disparities in Brooklyn neighborhoods tended to correspond with racial differences. The company doesn’t disclose its data, but the implication from the article published in Fortune is that being fair to individuals leads to apparent unfairness when the customers are grouped by race. Blacks who largely populate Bed-Stuy can reasonably argue that they’re getting ripped-off since they pay relatively more than Brooklyn Heights whites for coverage.
Of course, insurance disparities measured across groups are common. Younger people pay more than older ones, and men more than women for the same auto insurance. What is changing, however, is that the hyper-personalization of AI analysis, combined with big data filtering that surfaces patterns in the treatment of racial, gender, and other identity groups, is multiplying and widening the gaps between individual and group equality. More and more, being fair to each individual is creating visible inequalities on the group level.
What Lemonade proposed to confront this problem is an AI-enabled shift from individual to group fairness in terms of loss ratios (the claims paid by the insurer divided by premiums received). Instead of applying the same ratio to all clients, it would be calibrated for equality across races, genders, and similarly protected demographics. The loss ratio used to calculate premiums for all whites would be the same one applied to other races. Instead of individuals, now it is identity groups that will be charged higher or lower premiums depending on whether they are more or less likely to make claims. (Note: Individuals may still be priced individually, but under the constraint that their loss ratio averaged with all others in their demographic equals that of other demographics.)
This is good for Lemonade because it allows them to maintain that they treat racial and gender groups equally since their quoted insurance prices all derive from a single loss ratio applied equally to the groups. It is also good for whites who live in Bud-Stuy because they now get incorporated into the rates set for Matt Damon and the rest inhabiting well protected and policed neighborhoods. Of course, where there are winners, there are also losers.
More broadly, here is an incomplete set of fairness applications:
Rates can be set individually to correspond with risk that a claim will be made: every individual is priced by the same loss ratio, and so pays an individualized insurance premium, with a lower rate reflecting lower risk.
Rates can be set for groups to correspond with total claims predicted to be made by its collected members: demographic segments are priced by the same loss ratio. But, different degrees of risk corresponding with the diverse groups results in the payments of diverse premiums for the same coverage. This occurs today in car insurance where young males pay higher premiums than young females because they have more accidents. The fairness claim is that even though the two groups are being treated differently is terms of premiums, they are treated the same in terms of the profit they generate for the insurer.
Going to the other extreme, rates can be set at a single level across the entire population: everyone pays the same price for the same insurance regardless of their circumstances and behaviors, which means that every individual incarnates a personalized loss ratio.
It is difficult to prove one fairness application preferable to another, but there is a difference between better and worse understandings of the fairness dilemma. AI Human Impact scores fairness in terms of that understanding – in terms of how deeply a company engages with the dilemma – and not in terms of adherence to one or another definition.
- Tesla Team, A Tragic Loss, Tesla Blog
This horror movie accident represents a particular AI fear: a machine capable of calculating pi to 31 trillion digits cannot figure out to stop when a truck crosses in front. The power juxtaposed with the debility seems ludicrous, as though the machine completely lacks common sense which, in fact, is precisely what it does lack.
For human users, one vertiginous effect of the debility is no safe moment. As with any mechanism, AIs come with knowable risks and dangers that can be weighed, compared, accepted or rejected, but it is beyond that, in the region of unknowable risks – especially those that strike as suddenly as they are unexpected – that trust in AI destabilizes. So, any car accident is worrisome, but this is terrifying: a report from the European Parliament found that the Tesla AI mistook the white tractor trailer crossing in front for the sky, and did not even slow down.
So, how is safety calculated in human terms? As miles driven without accidents? That’s the measure Tesla proposed, but it doesn’t account for the unorthodox perils of AI. Accounting for them is the task of an AI ethics evaluation.
Since 2017, more than 70 AI and big data ethical principles and values guidelines have been published. Because many are ethical in origin, the contributions tend to break along the lines of academic applied ethics. Corresponding with libertarianism there are values of personal freedom. Extending from a utilitarian approach there are values of social wellbeing. Then, on the technical side, there are values focusing on trust and accountability for what an AI does.
Here is the AI Human Impact breakdown:
Domain |
Principles/Values |
Personal |
Autonomy |
Dignity |
|
Privacy |
|
Social |
Fairness |
Solidarity |
|
Sustainability |
|
Technical |
Performance |
Safety |
|
Accountability |
Each of the mainstream collections of AI ethics principles has their own way of fitting onto that trilogical foundation, but the Ethics Guidelines for Trustworthy AI sponsored by the European Commission is representative, as is the Opinion of the Data Ethics Commission of Germany. They are arranged in the figure below for comparison, along with the values grounding AI Human Impact.
AI Human Impact |
EC Guidelines Trustworthy AI |
German Data Ethics Commission |
Autonomy |
Human agency |
Self-determination |
Dignity |
Human dignity |
|
Privacy |
Privacy and |
Privacy |
Fairness |
Diversity, non-discrimination, fairness |
|
Solidarity |
Justice and Solidarity |
|
Sustainability |
Societal and |
Sustainability |
Democracy |
||
Performance |
||
Safety |
Technical robustness |
Security |
Accountability |
Accountability |
|
Transparency |
There are discrepancies, and some are superficial. The E.C. Guidelines split ‘Accountability’ and ‘Transparency,’ whereas AI Human Impact unites them into a single category. The German Data Ethics Commission joins ‘Justice’ and ‘Solidarity,’ whereas AI Human Impact splits them into ‘Fairness’ and ‘Solidarity.’
Another difference is more profound. Performance as an ethical principle occurs only in the AI Human Impact model because it is extremely important to investors: a primary reason for involvement in the evaluation of AI-intensive companies is the financial return. How well the technology performs, consequently, is critical because an AI that cannot win market share will not have financial, human, or any impact.
Performance as an ethics metric is also critical in this sense: machines that function well eliminate problems. No one asks about accountability or safety when nothing goes wrong: theoretically, a perfectly functioning machine renders significant regions of ethical concern immaterial. Performance – the machine working – could be construed as the highest ethical demand.
Autonomy
Dignity
Privacy
How much intimate information about myself will I expose for the right job offer, or an accurate romantic match?
Originally, health insurance enabled adventurous activities (like skiing the double black diamond run) by promising to pay the emergency room bill if things went wrong. Today, dynamic AI insurance converts personal information into consumer rewards by lowering premiums in real time for those who avoid risks like the double black diamond. What changed?
An AI chatbot mitigates depression when patients believe they are talking with a human. Should the design – natural voice, and human conversational indicators like the occasional cough – encourage that misperception?
If my tastes, fears and urges are perfectly satisfied by predictive analytics, I become a contented prisoner inside my own data set: I always get what I want, even before I realize that I want it. How – and should – AI platforms be perverted to create opportunities and destinies outside those accurately modeled for who my data says I am?
What’s worth more: freedom and dignity, or contentment and health?
Fairness
Solidarity
Sustainability
Which is primary: equal opportunity for individuals, or equal outcomes for race, gender and similar identity groups?
AI catering to individualized tastes, vulnerabilities, and urges effectively diminishes awareness of the others’ tastes, vulnerabilities and urges – users are decreasingly exposed to their music, their literature, their values and beliefs. On the social level, is it better for people to be content, or to be together?
An AI detects breast cancer from scans earlier than human doctors, but it trained on data from white women. Should the analyzing pause until data can be accumulated – and efficacy proven – for all races?
Those positioned to exploit AI technology will exchange mundane activities for creative, enriching pursuits, while others inherit joblessness and tedium. Or so it is said. Who decides what counts as creative, interesting and worthwhile versus mundane, depressing and valueless – and do they have a responsibility to uplift their counterparts?
What counts as fair? Aristotle versus Rawls.
Is equality about verbs (what you can do), or nouns (who you are, what you have)?
In the name of solidarity, how much do individuals sacrifice for the community?
Performance
Safety
Accountability
A chatbot responds to questions about history, science and the arts instantly, and so delivers civilization’s accumulated knowledge with an efficiency that withers the ability to research and to discover for ourselves (Why exercise thinking when we have easy access to everything we want to know?) Is perfect knowledge worth intellectual stagnation?
Compared to deaths per car trip today, how great a decrease would be required to switch to only driverless cars, ones prone to the occasional glitch and consequent, senseless wreck?
If an AI picks stocks, predicts satisfying career choices, or detects cancer, but only if no one can understand how the machine generates knowledge, should it be used?
What’s worth more, understanding or knowledge? (Knowing, or knowing why you know?)
Which is primary, making AI better, or knowing who to blame, and why, when it fails?
What, and how much will we risk for better accuracy and efficiency?
What counts as risk, and who takes it?
A driverless car AI system refines its algorithms by imitating driving habits of the human owner (driving distance between cars, accelerating, breaking, turning radiuses). The car later crashes. Who is to blame?
While every development and application is unique, the below list of questions orients human impact evaluators toward potential ethical problems and dilemmas surrounding AI technology.
The checklist is modified from the European Council’s Assessment List on Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence.
A three-point metric scores ethical performance indicators in AI intensive companies. A score of 2 corresponds with a positive evaluation, 1 corresponds with neutral or not material, and 0 corresponds with inadequacy. The scores convert into objective investment guidance, both individually and as a summed total.
Investors who are particularly interested in privacy, for example, or safety, may choose to highlight those metrics in their analysis of investment opportunities. Materiality is also significant as AI-intensive companies vary widely in terms of risk exposure across the values spectrum: Tesla will be evaluated in terms of safety, while TicTok/ByteDance engages privacy concerns.
Investors may widen the humanist vision to include the full range of AI ethics concerns, and so focus on the overall impact score derived from a company. Because personal freedom is the orienting metric of responsible AI investing, it is double weighted in the aggregating formula.
1. Self-reporting: AI Human Impact Due Diligence Questionnaire.
2. Independent ethical evaluation.
3. Data gathering from public sources.
AI Human Impact: Toward a Model for Ethical Investing in AI-Intensive Companies, Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, 2021, Version of Record.
PrePrint @ Social Science Research Network: Full text.
AI Human Impact: AI-Intensive Companies Surveyed in Human and Ethical Terms for Investment Purposes, 2020, Global AI: Boston. Video. Deck.
How to put AI ethics into practice? AI Human Impact, 2020, Vlog at AI Policy Exchange, National Law School of India University, Bangalore.
AI Human Impact: Toward a Model for Ethical Investing in AI-Intensive Companies, 2020, Podcast • AI Asia Pacific Institute.
Transforming Ethics in AI through Investment, 2020, Article at AI Pacific Institute.
AI Human Impact in panel discussion: Digital Ethics and AI Governance, 2020, Informa Tech, AI Summit NY.
AI Human Impact in panel discussion: AI in RegTech 2020, ReWork Virtual Summit.
Regulation without prohibition in panel discussion: AI in RegTech, 2020, ReWork Virtual Summit.
On AI Human Impact, 2020, AI Summit (Informa), Silicon Valley.
Why AI can never be explainable..., 2020, AI Summit (Informa), Silicon Valley.
Assessed a non-invasive European AI medical device that used machine learning to analyze electrical signals of the heart (EKG) to predict cardiovascular heart disease risk. The startup’s name is redacted to honor a non-disclosure agreement.
Description. Team members.
Emergency medical dispatchers fail to identify approximately 25% of cases of out of hospital cardiac arrest, thus loose the opportunity to provide the caller instructions in cardiopulmonary resuscitation. A team lead by Stig Nikolaj Blomberg (Emergency Medical Services Copenhagen, and Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Copenhagen, Denmark) examined whether a machine learning framework could recognize out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and alert the emergency medical dispatcher.
The results of a retrospective study are published here.
The results of a randomized clinical trial are published here.
We are working with Blomberg and his team to evaluate the ethical implications of using machine learning in this context.
Description. Team members.
The team of Dr. Andreas Dengel at the German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI) used a neural network to analyze skin images for classification of three skin tumors, Melanocytic Naevi, Melanoma, and Seborrheic Keratosis. The result of their work is available here: IJCNN Interpretability (1)
We are working with Andreas Dengel and his team to evaluate the implications of using deep learning in this context.
Description. Team members.
What a Philosopher Learned at an AI Ethics Evaluation, 2020, AI Ethics Journal, 1(1)-4. Full text.
Lecturer, Doctoral Program, University of Trento, Italy. AI Ethics Today.
Philosophy Department, Pace University, New York City. CV.
James Brusseau (PhD, Philosophy) is author of books, articles, and digital media in the history of philosophy and ethics. He has taught in Europe, Mexico, and currently at Pace University near his home in New York City.
linkedin.com/in/james-brusseau
connect@aihumanimpact.fund
jbrusseau@pace.edu